Following the mid-August short squeeze and a brief wave of euphoria, Bitcoin stalled immediately below long-term overhead supply. With sovereign yields setting new cycle highs and ETF turnover subdued, the market has settled back into a well-defined trading range.

A record short liquidation event ignited a 26% rally off the mid-August low, and real money paid for it: the strongest ETF intake of the year, coins leaving exchanges, every cohort accumulating. What stands between this recovery and the January high is one band of supply between $81K and $86K.

Elevated yields keep Bitcoin anchored near cycle lows while gold and oil rally. On-chain, price sits below both key cost bases in a shallow capitulation. Perpetual demand improves but US spot lags and volatility compresses. The bottoming process is underway, exhaustion is not.

Bitcoin is wound tight between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019. Sellers are tiring and buyers are absent, yet leverage has already pulled the trigger on a recovery the data does not yet support.