BTC Market Pulse: Week 42

Spot Indicators

Price Momentum. Decreased from 57.8 to 44.9, marking a 22.3% drop over the week. Price Momentum shows weakening price action as the index drifts lower into the mid 40s. The current reading sits safely inside its statistical range, reflecting a cooling of the previous upward trend without triggering aggressive oversold conditions.

Spot CVD. Decreased from $11.1M to -$90.7M, representing a 920.6% drop over the week. Spot CVD highlights a shift toward aggressive selling pressure as cumulative taker volume turns negative. The metric rests comfortably inside its expected bands, indicating that market participants are actively driving prices downward through persistent sell orders on centralized exchanges.

Spot Volume. Decreased from $5.7B to $5.4B, marking a 4.7% drop over the week. Spot Volume demonstrates moderate market activity as daily exchange turnover contracts slightly. The total traded value remains contained within its established boundaries, signaling a period of consolidation with stable liquidity rather than extreme shifts in investor participation.

Futures Indicators

Futures Open Interest. Increased by 0.0% from $36.7B 7 days ago to $36.7B today. Futures Open Interest remained virtually unchanged, signaling stable participation and steady speculative appetite across active perpetual contracts. The metric is positioned near the high band, indicating elevated leverage in the system as traders maintain high exposure without triggering significant position unwinding or risk-off behavior.

Long-Side Funding Payment. Decreased by 25.8% from $1.3M 7 days ago to $945.0K today. Long-Side Funding Payment declined significantly, reflecting fading long-side conviction and a cooling demand for bullish perpetual exposure. The metric has fallen below its low band, indicating that market sentiment is shifting as participants become less willing to pay a premium to hold leveraged long positions.

Perpetual CVD. Decreased by 1476.1% from $49.5M 7 days ago to -$681.8M today. Perpetual CVD experienced a sharp drop into negative territory, highlighting dominant sell-side pressure and aggressive taker distribution. The metric sits well below its low band, pointing to persistent bearish momentum as aggressive sellers drive down the cumulative volume difference in the derivatives market.

Options Indicators

Options Open Interest. Increased by 3.3% from $36.2B to $37.4B over the week. Options Open Interest expanded steadily, pushing total aggregate positioning higher to about $37B. The metric remained positioned well within its established statistical range, indicating measured capital inflows into derivative structures. This gradual buildup highlights sustained market participation and ongoing engagement in speculative and hedging strategies across key maturity dates.

Volatility Spread. Increased by 48.5% from -7.5% to -3.9% over the week. Volatility Spread narrowed its negative gap as implied pricing shifted relative to historical realized movement. The reading stayed well within the standard operational bands, signaling that options are aligning more closely with underlying spot volatility. This contraction suggests diminishing complacency in the market as participants price in fairer expectations for upcoming price fluctuations.

Options 25-Delta Skew. Increased by 112.4% from 2.1% to 4.46% over the week. Options 25-Delta Skew climbed significantly as market participants adjusted their risk posture. The indicator remained comfortably inside its statistical boundaries, reflecting rising demand for downside protection without signaling an extreme tail event. This expansion in skew points to a cautious sentiment bias among traders seeking tactical hedges against unfavorable price movements.

ETF Indicators

US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly). Decreased by 694.8% over the week from $117.9M to -$701.6M, a sharp shift toward withdrawals. US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly) dropped significantly below its low band, signaling a notable wave of capital withdrawal and reduced demand from traditional finance participants. This sharp outflow points to broad risk aversion and profit taking across regulated investment channels.

US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly). Increased by 3.2% over the week from $11.0B to $11.3B, showing steady engagement. US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly) expanded moderately, maintaining a position in the lower part of its range despite broader shifts in capital allocation. This activity level highlights persistent institutional interest and ongoing market responsiveness within regulated Bitcoin vehicles, even as net inflows face downward pressure.

US Spot ETF MVRV. Decreased by 2.4% over the week from 1.5 to 1.4, indicating slightly lower profit margins. US Spot ETF MVRV declined as aggregate portfolio profitability compressed alongside recent price consolidation. The metric slips back inside its statistical range, just below its high band, reflecting stable investor positioning without triggering acute behavioral stress or systemic profit taking among institutional participants.

Fundamental Indicators

Total Fee Volume. Decreased by 15.0% from $260.7K to $221.6K over the past week. Total Fee Volume sits comfortably inside its range, suggesting reduced transaction pressure and lower usage intensity across the blockchain. This normalization in spending indicates a lighter demand for block space as users exhibit less urgency for transaction inclusion in current market conditions.

Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume. Decreased by 0.1% from $5.9B to $5.9B over the past week. Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume remains above its high band, pointing to sustained capital movement and elevated investor activity despite broader consolidation. This resilience highlights active large-scale reallocations and healthy economic settlement throughput occurring on the Bitcoin network without significant friction.

Daily Active Address Count. Decreased by 5.9% from 670.9K to 631.2K over the past week. Daily Active Address Count has fallen back inside its range from above its high band, reflecting quieter user behavior and lower transactional demand across the network. This contraction indicates a cooling of retail engagement and less speculative activity as fewer unique participants interact with the blockchain daily.

Capital Flows Indicators

Realized Cap Change (Monthly). Increased from 1.1% to 1.2% over the week. Realized Cap Change (Monthly) rose as net capital inflows expanded due to coin revaluation at higher price levels. The indicator remained safely above its high band, confirming strong demand conditions and active capital accumulation typical of advancing macro market trends.

STH to LTH Supply Ratio. Increased from 14.2% to 14.5% over the week. STH to LTH Supply Ratio climbed as the proportion of coins held by newer market participants grew relative to long-term investors. The metric held near the high band, reflecting elevated trading activity and a shifting holder base towards more reactive capital profiles.

Hot Capital Share. Increased from 19.6% to 20.3% over the week. Hot Capital Share expanded as newer participants increased their presence in the market. The metric pushed well above its high band, signaling an influx of short-term and price-sensitive capital that typically accompanies rapid market rallies or heightened speculative phases across the network.

Profit/Loss States Indicators

Percent Supply in Profit. Decreased from 74.5% to 71.4% over the past week, a 4.1% reduction in supply in profit. Percent Supply in Profit drifted lower as spot prices pulled back, reducing the proportion of coins held at a favorable basis. The metric remains positioned above its high band, signaling that a substantial majority of the circulating supply stays in unrealized profit while latent sell side pressure adjusts.

Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio. Decreased from 13.0% to 11.1% over the past seven days, a 14.6% reduction. Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio dropped significantly as profit margins contracted among short-term holders. The indicator currently sits above its high band, reflecting elevated profit margins and indicating that short-term holders maintain a net positive unrealized profit stance despite the recent contraction in their profitability.

Realized Profit to Loss Ratio. Decreased from 1.5 to 1.0 over the last seven days, a 34.4% drop in the profit to loss balance. Realized Profit to Loss Ratio experienced a sharp contraction as realized profit-taking cooled relative to realized losses. The reading remains positioned above its high band, confirming that profit realization continues to dominate loss realization on-chain despite the moderating momentum in spending behavior.