BTC Market Pulse: Week 38
Bitcoin slips to $76.8k, down 4.4% on the week, yet holds its range. Spot and perpetual selling and ETF outflows weigh, but capital inflows and elevated profitability show a market absorbing pressure, not breaking down.
Overview
Bitcoin trades near $76,800, down 4.4% on the week, yet the $76,600 area has held on every close since Thursday and the pullback has stayed inside a $76,600 to $80,400 range. Spot conditions have softened. Price momentum fell from 54.6 to 46.5 and stays inside its statistical bands, while spot CVD moved from -$29.7M to -$142.7M, below its low band of -$115.3M, a sign of net selling on centralized exchanges. Spot volume eased from $5.3B to $4.9B and remains within its normal range.
Derivatives show leverage that is elevated but no longer growing. Futures open interest slipped from $37.1B to $36.4B yet still sits above its high band of $36.0B, and long-side funding payments rose from $1.3M to $1.4M within their bands. Perpetual CVD dropped from -$85.6M to -$605.9M, far below its low band of -$233.9M, pointing to aggressive taker selling. In options, open interest holds near $40.0B above its high band, the volatility spread widened to -22.34%, below its low band, and the 25-delta skew rose from -2.05% to 0.94% but remains below its low band of 3.75%.
US spot ETF demand reversed. Weekly netflow swung from $753.2M of inflows to $467.5M of outflows and weekly trade volume fell from $12.1B to $8.7B, both below their low bands, while ETF MVRV eased to 1.34 inside its bands. On-chain activity cooled within its normal range: fee volume fell to $202.6K, transfer volume to $4.0B and active addresses to 610.8K.
Capital flows remain constructive: monthly realized cap change rose to 1.0%, above its upper band of 0.2%, while the STH to LTH ratio (13.7%) and hot capital share (17.6%) sit within their bands. Profitability is elevated but easing: 66.2% of supply is in profit and net unrealized profit to loss reads 8.4%, both above their high bands, while the realized profit to loss ratio fell from 1.0 to 0.5, still positive near its high band. In short, spot, derivatives and ETF flows lean to the sell side, but price holds its range, leverage is not unwinding and loss-taking stays contained. So far the market absorbs the selling rather than breaking down, new capital keeps entering and most of the supply remains in profit.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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