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# BTC Market Pulse: Week 45
- URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-45-2026/
- Published: 2026-11-02T16:05:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-02T16:05:09.000Z
- Description: Bitcoin trades near $78k on Monday after a Thursday slide below $80k. Perpetual sellers drove the drop, yet longs keep paying up in funding and options traders are buying protection, while spot buyers held steady.
- Author: Glassnode
- Tags: Market Pulse

## Overview

Bitcoin trades near $78k on Monday after closing the week about 2% lower, as a slide on Thursday took it clearly below $80k. Perpetual takers drove the drop and pushed perpetual CVD just below its low band. Leverage still has not cleared: futures open interest holds in the upper part of its range, and longs keep paying funding well above its high band.

Spot buyers held up better. Spot takers bought early in the week and again over the weekend, lifting spot CVD into the upper part of its range, while momentum dipped below its low band on Friday and recovered just above it. ETF flows were roughly flat as Friday's outflows offset the early inflows, ETF trading volume jumped above its high band with the sell-off, and ETF MVRV sits just above its low band.

Options traders are paying for protection. The 25-delta skew moved above its high band and implied volatility jumped with the drop, keeping the volatility spread well above its high band. Options open interest fell with Friday's monthly expiry. On-chain, transfer volume rose above its high band and active addresses climbed toward the top of their range.

Capital keeps rotating into newer hands: the hot capital share, the ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply and the monthly change in realized cap all stay above their high bands. Realized losses now slightly outweigh profits, and short-term holder margins narrowed. In short, perpetual sellers drove the slide without a leverage flush, and hedges are building while spot buyers held steady.

## Off-Chain Indicators

![Off-chain indicators for the week to 1 November 2026: Spot moderate and rising, Futures moderate and declining, Options high and rising, ETF moderate and rising.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/25/7e/257e6d23-09bb-4d1c-b3ed-16ff70eb3f9f/content/images/2026/11/ghost_offchain.png)

Read every off-chain indicator

**Spot Indicators**

**Price Momentum.** Decreased from 39.1 to 34.7, showing an 11.2% decline in momentum over the week. Price Momentum turned lower, reflecting weakening price action and increased selling pressure, and sits just above its low band after a brief dip below it on Friday. This downward drift highlights a persistent lack of buyer dominance and underscores prevailing downward momentum across the market.

**Spot CVD.** Increased from -$78.6M to $25.3M, representing a 132.2% surge in cumulative delta. Spot CVD climbed into the upper part of its range, demonstrating a notable shift in sentiment as aggressive traders transition from net distribution to dominant buying behavior across centralized exchanges.

**Spot Volume.** Increased from $5.5B to $5.6B, marking a 2.7% growth in aggregate trading activity. Spot Volume remains positioned comfortably within its established historical range, reflecting steady baseline liquidity and market participation without signaling any major breakout or structural shifts in underlying investor interest.

**Futures Indicators**

**Futures Open Interest.** Decreased by 0.5% from $37.6B seven days ago to $37.4B today. Futures Open Interest shows the total nominal value of active contracts across all exchanges. The slight decline reflects a minor unwinding of positions, though aggregate positioning remains robust at about $37B. The metric sits in the upper part of its range, indicating that speculative appetite and leveraged participation remain elevated despite modest risk reduction.

**Long-Side Funding Payment.** Increased by 40.5% from $2.2M seven days ago to $3.1M today. Long-Side Funding Payment measures the net daily funding rate paid by long-position holders to short-position holders. The notable expansion reflects a strong willingness among traders to pay a substantial premium for bullish exposure. The metric resides well above its high band, suggesting heightened market sentiment imbalances driven by aggressive demand for long positions.

**Perpetual CVD.** Decreased by 48.0% from -$381.7M seven days ago to -$564.8M today. Perpetual CVD tracks the cumulative net difference between buying and selling volumes from aggressive takers. The widening negative trajectory points to persistent distribution behavior as selling pressure overwhelms buying interest. The metric currently sits below its low band, indicating that dominant sell-side pressure is actively dictating the directional conviction of market participants.

**Options Indicators**

**Options Open Interest.** Decreased by 9.8% to $34.7B compared to $38.5B seven days ago. Options Open Interest contracted significantly as the monthly expiry on Friday settled a large share of contracts, leaving the metric in the lower half of its range. The reduction in total notional value reflects that scheduled expiry more than a broad exit, pointing to a reset of positioning rather than a collapse in speculative demand within the derivatives segment.

**Volatility Spread.** Increased by 15.1% to 41.6% compared to 36.2% seven days ago. Volatility Spread expanded further above its high band. Such a configuration implies options are pricing in significantly more risk than the market has realized, often reflecting heightened fear, uncertainty, or speculative positioning regarding future price swings.

**Options 25-Delta Skew.** Increased to 11.2% compared to 10.5% seven days ago. Options 25-Delta Skew rose and moved above its high band. This upward shift implies puts are more expensive than calls, suggesting increased demand for downside protection, typically reflecting a bearish or hedging sentiment among market participants adjusting their directional risk perception.

**ETF Indicators**

**US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly).** Increased by 118.9% over the week, shifting from an outflow of -$247.3M to an inflow of $46.7M. US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly) rebounded into positive territory as capital returned to regulated investment vehicles, reversing prior withdrawals. The metric sits in the middle of its range, as early-week inflows outweighed Friday's outflows and left demand from traditional finance steady but modest.

**US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly).** Increased by 21.6% over the week, moving from $10.8B to $13.1B in trading activity. US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly) expanded notably above its high band as Friday's sell-off brought the heaviest trading of the week. This elevated activity signals heightened speculative interest and stronger TradFi engagement, reflecting increased institutional participation across US-listed spot bitcoin exchange traded products during the period.

**US Spot ETF MVRV.** Increased by 2.8% over the week, moving from a value of 1.39 to 1.43\. US Spot ETF MVRV rose as aggregate positions generated slightly higher unrealized gains for traditional finance investors. The metric moved back just above its low band after dipping below it during the week, reflecting thin but stable profitability without excessive pressure for profit-taking or capitulation.

## On-Chain Indicators

![On-chain indicators for the week to 1 November 2026: Fundamental moderate and rising, Capital Flows high and rising, Profit/Loss States moderate and declining.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/25/7e/257e6d23-09bb-4d1c-b3ed-16ff70eb3f9f/content/images/2026/11/ghost_onchain.png)

Read every on-chain indicator

**Fundamental Indicators**

**Total Fee Volume.** Increased by 3.8% compared to 7 days ago, expanding from $189.0K to $196.3K. Total Fee Volume ticked upward as demand for block space picked up slightly. The metric moved back above its low band into the lower part of its range, reflecting steady transactional pressure and stable user willingness to pay for network inclusion without indicating congestion.

**Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume.** Increased by 12.2% compared to 7 days ago, growing from $5.4B to $6.1B. Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume climbed as capital movement accelerated. The metric moved above its high band, pointing to increased economic throughput and large-scale reallocations driven by heightened investor activity during this phase.

**Daily Active Address Count.** Increased by 5.1% compared to 7 days ago, rising from 614.7K to 646.1K. Daily Active Address Count rose as user participation expanded. The metric sits near the high band, signaling growing user engagement and adoption across the network as market participants increase their transactional footprint.

**Capital Flows Indicators**

**Realized Cap Change (Monthly).** Decreased by 18.9% over the week to reach 0.9%. Realized Cap Change (Monthly) contracted as capital inflow velocity moderated, though the reading stays just above its high band. This ongoing elevated posture indicates sustained net capital accumulation through higher priced coin acquisitions, filtering out market noise to highlight continuing structural demand.

**STH to LTH Supply Ratio.** Increased by 1.9% over the week to reach 15.0%. STH to LTH Supply Ratio contrasts newer participants against resilient coin owners. The indicator moves just above its high band, implying a growing presence of reactive market participants and elevated trading activity within the active holder base.

**Hot Capital Share.** Increased by 2.0% over the week to reach 21.8%. Hot Capital Share reflects an influx of short-term, price-sensitive capital. The index currently trades well above its high band, signaling heightened volatility sensitivity and an expansion of speculative participation across the network.

**Profit/Loss States Indicators**

**Percent Supply in Profit.** Decreased from 66.8% to 63.6%, reflecting a moderate 4.8% contraction over the week. Percent Supply in Profit contracted slightly as spot price movements pushed a portion of holdings below their cost basis. The metric remains in the upper half of its range, showing that roughly two thirds of the circulating supply stays profitable, which subdues immediate sell-side pressure from gain realization.

**Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio.** Decreased from 7.3% to 4.0%, marking a sharp 45.1% contraction over the week. Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio has compressed notably, reflecting diminishing unrealized profit margins among short-term holders as recent buyers experience valuation pressure. The indicator remains comfortably inside its historical statistical range, suggesting cooling sentiment without registering extreme structural stress or exuberance.

**Realized Profit to Loss Ratio.** Decreased from 0.6 to -0.1, representing a shift into negative territory with a 123.6% change over the week. Realized Profit to Loss Ratio flipped below zero as loss realization began to outweigh profit-taking on-chain, highlighting a shift in immediate spending behavior. This reading stays inside its statistical envelope, signaling a transition toward fear-driven conditions and defensive positioning among active market participants.

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